An incoming western disturbance has locked in itself into a position over South Iran and induced a spinoff cyclonic circulation to form over Central Pakistan on Friday morning, with implications for a heat wave-affected North-West India that lies to the immediate East.
Thunderstorms and lightning may strike isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh from today (Friday) but heat wave to severe heat wave conditions may persist over parts of West Rajasthan and slightly less in intensity over west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, east Rajasthan, Gujarat and Telangana.
Heat wave over North-West India
Heat wave conditions may occur over pockets of Vidarbha, Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh on Saturday (tomorrow) as well, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said even as it was tracking the low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal .The ‘low’ was located on Friday over the South-East Bay and adjoining South Andaman Sea (away from Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka), and will continue to move East-North-East to become ‘well marked’ by Saturday morning.
The well-marked ‘low’ may later move along and off the Andaman & Nicobar Islands to intensify into a depression by Sunday and into a cyclone on Monday. Thereafter, it may move North-North-East and reach near Bangladesh-North Myanmar coasts around Tuesday.
Cyclone by Monday
Thunderclouds (in red and yellow) are better organised around the low-pressure area over the South-East Bay of Bengal on Friday even as it awaits intensification as a cyclone by Monday.
Wind shear values are currently high and unfavourable over the North Bay of Bengal where the system is headed. But they may weaken going forward and become favourable, according to global forecasts. Sea-surface temperatures continue to be cooler towards the northern half of the Bay though marginally favourable.
Only a few models pointed to the possibility of a marginally strong cyclone crossing the North Myanmar coast in the next three-four days while others too picked the same location for a landfall for a conventional cyclone. At least one did not find scope for a cyclone developing in the Bay just yet.
March 18, 2022