Light to moderate showers have spread to more parts of Gujarat, covering Surat, Gulf of Khambat, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Vadodara, Rajkot, Mundra, Gandhidham, Patan, Palanpur and Mount Abu, and knocking at the doors of Ahmedabad, the commercial capital, and Udaipur in neighbouring East Rajasthan this (Wednesday) morning.
A blob of heavier showers sat over Mumbai even as another approached the stretch between Kozhikode and Kannur in Kerala on the West Coast, as per latest satellite pictures. This happened on a day when the offshore trough, the monsoon’s backbone that had stretched from South Gujarat to Kerala the previous day, had shrunk to a sliver.
Offshore trough weakens
This trough, which receives monsoon flows from the Arabian Sea and pours it as rain over the coast, stayed truncated in alignment from Karnataka to Kerala in the morning. Global models have been pointing to its vulnerability, given the rather weak monsoon flows. Each depends on the other to restore the monsoon rains to normal. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread rain, thunderstorms, lightning over Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, and Mahe and Lakshadweep and scattered to fairly widespread over Konkan, Goa (including Mumbai), Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next five days
Heavy rain forecast
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh today (Wednesday) and on Saturday; over Telangana today; Rayalaseema on Saturday; Coastal and South Interior Karnataka on Friday and Saturday; Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal today, and on Friday and Saturday; and over Kerala and Mahe until Saturday. The monsoon continued to be delayed by various margins over Chennai, most of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, half of Maharashtra, entire Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, West Jharkhand and West Bihar as of yesterday (Tuesday).
Busy over East India
Flows over the Bay of Bengal remain better organised and explain the frequent heavy to very heavy showers over North-East India and East India, where the monsoon has made its onset already. The IMD has, in a special forecast, predicted widespread thundershowers over the North-East, and the adjoining hills of West Bengal and Sikkim for the next five days.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall may lash Arunachal Pradesh and the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim during this period. It will be heavy over Nagaland and Manipur until Saturday; isolated extremely heavy over Arunachal Pradesh today and tomorrow (Wednesday and Thursday); and over Assam and Meghalaya during the next five days.
Western disturbance to kick in
As for East India, rainfall is likely to increase gradually over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and the plains of West Bengal, with fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds during this period. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Jharkhand on Thursday and Friday, and over Bihar until Saturday.
Isolated rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely over West Madhya Pradesh and scattered to fairly widespread over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during the next five days as an incoming western disturbance, too, gets into action. Isolated heavy rainfall likely over East Madhya Pradesh today and tomorrow (Wednesday and Thursday) and over Chhattisgarh until Friday.
June 15, 2022