In an unusual turn of weather events for February-March, though picked up by models in time, scattered to fairly widespread/moderate rains are expected to break out over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Andhra Pradesh and Yanam later this week.
This will come about as a rare low-pressure area takes shape over the South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea by tomorrow (Monday), India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update this (Sunday) morning.
Cyclonic circulation present
A causative cyclonic circulation will move in from the Strait of Malacca and emerge over the South Andaman Sea by this evening itself. Heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over the Nicobar Islands today. Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning and gusty winds (speed 30-40 km/h) may stalk the larger Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
The Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre has already come out with a forecast for a wetter than usual pre-monsoon season (March to May) for India this year. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees the emerging wet weather lasting until March 7 (Monday next) and sustaining with less intensity into the subsequent week, too. It also sees fresh development over the South-East Bay by the end of that week.
Squally weather warning
The IMD has warned of squally weather (winds speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr to almost depression strength) over the South Andaman Sea and the adjoining South-East Bay today and tomorrow (Sunday and Monday). Fishermen are not advised not to venture into these areas.
As for tomorrow (Monday), heavy rainfall may continue over the Nicobar Islands while thunderstorms, accompanied with lightning and gusty winds (40-50 km/hr), may line up over the rest of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Squally weather (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) may prevail for a second day over the South Andaman Sea and the adjoining South-East Bay. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
Getting closer to TN coast
As for Tuesday, the rough weather pattern with squalls (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) may begin to cover further West and cover the South-East and adjoining South-West Bay, closer to the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.
The very next day (Wednesday, March 2), the IMD sees heavy rainfall lashing Coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal and squally weather (winds speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) prevailing over the South-West and adjoining South-East Bay. Fishermen are not allowed to venture into these waters. These conditions will sustain into the subsequent day (Thursday) as well.
Thunderstorms alert for East India
March 4-6 (Friday to Sunday) will see the unusual wet weather spreading further West and North into Tamilnadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Kerala and Mahe. Heavy rainfall is likely over Coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. Squally weather (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) may prevail over the South-West and adjoining South-East Bay with fishermen being advised caution.
Meanwhile, a fair bit of weather is happening over North-West India with a western disturbance checking in over Bathinda and neighbourhood in Punjab. It will trigger isolated light/moderate rain with thunderstorms and lightning up front over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim and Chhattisgarh until tomorrow (Monday).
Welcome rain for South
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during this period.
The incoming rainy session may end a lean patch for Karnataka and Kerala while adding to the surplus over Tamil Nadu. The country as a whole has a surplus of 48 per cent as of yesterday (January 1 to February 26) though marred by large to medium individual deficits in Karnataka, Kerala, parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and North-East India.
February 27, 2022