True to predictions, a low-pressure area has formed over the South Andaman Sea and the adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal, throwing up masses of heavy clouds over an entire stretch covering the entire South and South-East Bay of Bengal (around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands), as well as the adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean.
Over North-West India, heat wave conditions may return to isolated pockets of Rajasthan for three days from tomorrow (Saturday), and to South Haryana, Delhi, South-West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha on Sunday and Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday morning.
To intensify as depression
The ‘low’ over the South Andaman Sea is expected to move to the North-West and intensify into a depression in the next two days, the IMD said, likely setting off turbulent weather over the warm seas (as high as 32 degrees Celsius over the Central Bay on Friday morning).
A number of weather models continue to suggest that it may intensify further, even at the expense of a rival brewing just below the Equator and sharing the same flows, but likely diving deeper South and moving farther away. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast for the Andaman & Nicobar Islands until Sunday. Fishermen may not venture into the Andaman Sea for three days and the South-East and Central Bay during next five days.
Converging monsoon flows
Weather watchers point out that the feverish activity building in the seas would help consolidate the south-westerly monsoon flows over the Bay of Bengal, likely precipitating an early onset over South Myanmar, followed by the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the farthest outpost in the Indian territorial waters. But this would ultimately depend on the behaviour of the depression, its track and intensity.
Myanmar expects the monsoon onset at least a week earlier than normal this year. Back home, Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu have been witnessing pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity consistently over the past week or so. This, along with the spread of clouds over the Bay of Bengal, point to the rollout of the pre-monsoon rain peak, a harbinger of the South-West monsoon.
Meanwhile, a western disturbance was located over North-West India (around Uttarkashi) this (Friday) morning while, a successor is seen crossing South Afghanistan into adjoining East Pakistan and eventually heading into North-West India.
A cyclonic circulation persisted over North-West Madhya Pradesh, from which a trough/wind discontinuity snaked its way to the deep South to the Comorin across Vidarbha, Telangana, Rayalaseema and interior Tamil Nadu, promising volatile weather marked by thunderstorms, gusty winds and lightning. A second trough extended East from North-West Madhya Pradesh to Meghalaya across Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and West Bengal. A third one was present over North-East India and Bangladesh, fuelling the ongoing seasonal thunderstorm activity in the region.
May 06, 2022