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GDP numbers: Positive surprise for third quarter but negative for FY21?


The CSO keeps the suspense alive on growth forecasts by coming with a second advance estimate in February after the first was released in January. The January forecast is based on extrapolations of data known till November or December for most variables while the second estimate is based on more of the realized data. Given that corporate performance has been good for the third quarter and that these numbers enter the calculations for several sectors, these estimates capture the picture in a better manner. Simultaneously there are the Q3 numbers which are provided which are more significant this time as several indicators showed that the economy had turned the corner.

The picture emerging is definitely satisfactory as growth for the year or rather degrowth is better than what was projected at -7.2{f08ff3a0ad7db12f5b424ba38f473ff67b97b420df338baa81683bbacd458fca} with value added now to degrow by 6.5{f08ff3a0ad7db12f5b424ba38f473ff67b97b420df338baa81683bbacd458fca}. The problem has been on the tax collection front as well as higher subsidies which has now caused

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